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Oportunidades HA-7-1-05

 

A. US $400 micro-enterprise credit limit for Latin America and the Caribbean HA-13-12-04

1. The mission of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is to reduce poverty, foster economic and social development, and strengthen democratic institutions in the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean.  An international organization with a world-wide membership of 46 nations, the IDB provides financing to the developing nations of the Americas to carry out investment projects in a wide variety of areas. In its 40 years of operations, the IDB has mobilized financing for projects that represent a total investment of $255 billion through 1999.  The Board of Governors has delegated many of its operational powers to the Board of Executive Directors, which is responsible for the conduct of the Bank's operations. In August 2003 the Magazine of the IDB wrote, “the IDB’s managers and its Board of Directors are constantly re-evaluating the Bank’s role and its services in the light of the latest economic realities”.  Since 1962 the IDB has issued triple-A rated bonds on international markets to help finance its programs for economic and social development in Latin America and the Caribbean. On April 7, for the first time, the IDB issued a bond in a Latin American currency. The bond, denominated in Mexican pesos, was for the equivalent of US$269 million. Twenty days later, the Bank issued a US$94.5 million bond denominated in Brazilian reais, and in June it issued a $43.78 million bond in Colombian pesos. The three transactions were made possible by a new flexibility in the global financial system and growing sophistication and depth of many of Latin America’s financial markets. 

a. IDB International Trade Finance Reactivation Program is designed to correct a serious shortage of credit for exporters, importers and other agents in the international trade sector through reciprocal or unilateral trade arrangements..  The program has a $1 billion cap on the total amount the IDB can lend for this purpose to the private sector in the region. However, countries that rely on official institutions for trade financing may receive financing for amounts above the ceiling.  The first loan under this new trade facility was approved on March 17, 2003, for Brazil: $110 million to Banco Bradesco S.A. to finance pre-shipment and post-shipment export financing for local companies and their subsidiaries abroad.  

b. Sovereign Bond Guarantees are available to countries that borrow internationally, and it will enable them to convert loan disbursements into guarantees for up to $250 million.  Like the trade facility, the guarantee program has a cap of $1 billion, but, by making the original guarantee rolling and reinstatable, this amount can be leveraged to guarantee as much as $4 billion in bonds or similar instruments. The Bank’s Private Sector Department, meanwhile, is making increasing use of its guarantees for private sector bond issues. The first operation in this area was carried out in April 2002, when the Bank guaranteed $75 million of a $300 million bond issue in Chile in national currency to support the upgrading of a toll road linking Santiago with the port of Valparaíso.

c. The IDB Board of Governors in 2002 expanded the allowable amounts of the Bank’s portfolio for so-called Policy-Based Loans, which are used to support macroeconomic reforms. Policy-Based Loans have several advantages for countries attempting to stabilize their macroeconomic framework: they can be quickly prepared, they are fast disbursing and they do not require local counterpart funds. At the same time the governors voted to add emergency loans to the Bank’s permanent list of financial instruments. These special five-year loans, designed to counteract a temporary economic crisis, were used only in 1998 and 1999. In March of 2000 the Bank’s Board of Executive Directors approved several mechanisms to put certain types of loans on a fast track for approval. Among them were innovation loans for up to $10 million for projects that pioneer new approaches and policies.  The new mechanisms also apply to sector loans in the areas of education, health, and commerce

2. Enrique V. Iglesias was re-elected president of the Inter-American Development Bank on November 8, 2002. He began his fourth five-year term on April 1, 2003.  In June 2004 Eloy García, the IDB treasurer was asked, “IDB bond sales used to be almost exclusively denominated in U.S. dollars, British pounds, Swiss francs, Japanese yen or a few other hard currencies. Why is the Bank only now issuing bonds in Latin American currencies?”.  Garcia responded, “The fundamental change has been the creation of a highly liquid international market in which many currencies, including some local currencies, can be freely exchanged, or “swapped” for hard currencies”.   In November 2004 it was reported that an IDB research team led by Guillermo Calvo, the Bank’s chief economist, has published a report titled “Unlocking Credit: The Quest for Deep and Stable Bank Lending,” the result of two years of research by dozens of experts that found among many things, “A current account deficit and liability dollarization can be dangerous. A country that has heavily dollarized liabilities can become subject to additional financial stress when it devalues its currency, because it has to pay the exchange rate differential on its debt. Economists have coined the term “twin crisis” to describe a situation in which we have a balance of payments crisis and a banking crisis simultaneously. There is less probability of a “sudden stop” in foreign capital inflows when there are low levels of dollarization. Sixty percent of the time “sudden stops” are associated with high levels of dollarization.

3. Friday, January 7, 2005 the Magazine of the Inter-American Development Bank wrote,Trust the people, test the program” wrote, Miguel Székely, an Oxford-trained economist, left the Inter-American Development Bank in 2001 to return to his homeland, Mexico, and work as an advisor to President Vicente Fox. As a researcher at the IDB, he had done extensive work on the economics of poverty and inequality, looking at issues such as the obstacles poor people face in accumulating human capital and assets. In 2002 he was appointed undersecretary for planning and evaluation at Mexico’s Social Development Ministry (SEDESOL) and charged with ensuring that its poverty reduction programs were congruent with Mexico’s national development plan. He spoke to IDBAmérica in October about Oportunidades, one of Mexico’s most successful and celebrated social programs.

 

2. Peter Bate from Tlicalco, Veracruz, Mexico wrote.A different kind of opportunity.  Launched in 1997, the program provides aid to indigent families to improve their nutrition and keep their children healthy and in school. Its quick and encouraging results led the IDB to grant the program a US$1 billion loan—so far the largest investment loan in the Bank’s history.  In May 2004 the Mexican program was one of two Latin American initiatives showcased at a World Bank conference in Shanghai on proven means of breaking the cycle of poverty in developing countries. The other one was Rio de Janeiro’s FavelaBairro, an IDB-supported program that has turned slums into livable neighborhoods.  The Mexican program has grown from 300,000 families in 1997 to 5 million in 2004, covering virtually the entire population threatened by hunger. The closely monitored and meticulously evaluated initiative has quickly shown impressive improvements in beneficiary families’ food consumption, infant weight and height growth, use of preventive medical services, prenatal care and contraception, school enrollment and retention and a reduction of the incidence of child labor. the rapid expansion of Oportunidades helped Mexico reduce poverty levels even during the economic doldrums of 2000–2002. According to the UN Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean’s indicators, in that period extreme poverty dropped from 15.2 percent to 12.6 percent of the population.  Around 1 million families receive their bimonthly stipends in bank accounts created by Oportunidades. Some of these families have even started to build up savings, as mothers and fathers salt away a few pesos they would have otherwise spent or stuffed under a mattress. A family with young children will receive the equivalent of about US$15 a month. There are larger incentives to keep children in school, including aid for supplies and uniforms, and amounts increase as students pass to upper grades. Payments for girls are higher than allotments for boys—a form of affirmative discrimination designed to close the gender gap in education among the poor. The stipends have ceilings (no family can receive more than US$150 a month) so there is no reward for having more and more children.  Families can remain in the program for three years, as long as they fulfill their co-responsibilities. Those who fail may be suspended or even dropped from the roster. After three years, families can re-enroll, provided they still meet the program’s criteria.

4. PROGRESA started under former president Ernesto Zedillo, whose Institutional Revolution Party (PRI) governed Mexico for seven decades until 2000. Zedillo’s successor was Vicente Fox, a leader of the National Action Party (PAN).  Instead of gutting the program, the Fox administration decided to expand it under a new name. PROGRESA had targeted rural areas, where extreme poverty was concentrated. As Oportunidades , it set out to reach indigent people in urban areas as well, and extended its education subsidies to cover high school. As a further incentive for students to graduate, the program now contributes to individual savings accounts that help its young beneficiaries accumulate some money to pay for higher education, start a small business or buy a home. The program has several features that distinguish it from previous poverty reduction initiatives. Aid is delivered in cash rather than in kind, and is given directly to the female head of household. Payments continue to flow as long as beneficiaries comply with a series of requirements known as “co-responsibilities”—namely keeping their children in school, taking them to see a doctor regularly and getting their shots, and attending periodic discussions on topics such as health, nutrition, hygiene, domestic violence and family planning. Pregnant women and lactating mothers and their infants are also provided an iron-fortified formula that helps prevent infant malnutrition.

5. The program started by using census and household survey data to identify the rural areas with the highest levels of indigence and worst living conditions. Once priority communities were pinpointed, house-by-house polls ascertained which families should receive aid through use of a points system based on criteria such as income and education levels, occupation, housing conditions, land and cattle ownership and access to clean water and electricity. As a final filter, the lists of potential beneficiaries were presented in community meetings so neighbors could validate the candidates. The same steps were followed as the program expanded, except that mobile polling units are used in urban areas. Several firewalls guard against political manipulation and corruption. Oportunidades staff does not handle money. The tasks of stuffing, sorting and delivering cash envelopes to beneficiaries is outsourced to commercial banks, a state-owned regulating agency and the telegraph company. Prior to elections there are “blackout periods” during which no payments may be made and no families may be added to the roster. With a core staff of around 630 people, Oportunidades spends only about 6 cents out of every peso on administrative expenses. Up to 12,000 people are employed as temporary workers to conduct house-by-house surveys and to input data during enrollment periods. Part of the clerical work is done by university students who must meet a required number of hours of social work before they graduate.

6. Emphasis on evaluation has gradually spread to other Mexican social programs, including some that had not been examined in decades. As a result, some programs have been shut down and others have been streamlined. Nowadays all of the Ministry of Social Development (SEDESOL) programs are subject to evaluation.The data supports its administrators when they appear before Mexico’s Congress to report on Oportunidades’ impact. As a consequence to the evaluation, the program’s operating budget has risen from 600 million pesos in 1997 to 30,000 million in 2004, making Oportunidades the largest social program in Mexico’s history. Oportunidades has also been scrutinized by international institutions. Before approving its loan in 2001, the IDB helped the program to organize a thorough evaluation by the International Food Policy Research Institute.  Oportunidades also moved the IDB to encourage other Latin American countries to study the Mexican model and adapt it to their particular needs. Carola Álvarez, who led the IDB project team for the US$1 billion loan, lists Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Honduras and Nicaragua among the countries that have drawn from Mexico’s experience in their implementation of social programs in education, health and nutrition.

7. At the October interview Székely said, the Opportunidades program started in 1997 to create a welfare system founded in the principle of co-responsibility, which was one of the innovations in the program’s design. You would give people cash transfers, but on condition that they assume responsibilities for a series of requirements. A scholarship tied to school attendance, for example. It’s hard to believe now, but the scholarships the government used to grant were not linked to academic performance or even to attendance. [In Oportunidades] the co-responsibilities concern nutrition, health and education. These are things families do in order to maximize the impact of the support they receive. If you only give them money, but their children don’t go to school, the impact you achieve is lesser than if you link them. And the third paradigm shift was evaluation.  Oportunidades covered 150 thousand families in 1997. By the year 2000 it had reached 2 million families. It now serves 5 million households.  This is the largest social program in Mexico’s history. We’ve never had a single program in which we have invested 30 billion pesos (about $2.7 billion) a year.

8. Most of the benefits of the Oportunidades program are derived from evaluation of other social programs. The tortilla subsidy is an example. It was a coupon that people received to buy tortillas at reduced prices. Let’s say tortillas cost one peso; using the coupons you could buy them for 50 cents. There were several problems. To mention one, tortilla vendors would buy coupons at a discount. This isn’t something that only happens in Mexico, it happens everywhere you have this sort of program. When we started to make a database of that program we realized that more than half of its beneficiaries did not exist. There were names and addresses, but when you checked it turned out families had moved years ago or lived in high-income areas. Once you started to generate such evidence, and compared it with the information of how this other program was working, it was easy to reorient resources. Evaluations were first considered for this program because its design was so harshly questioned. First, because it proposed to give people cash, when the state was supposed to provide them goods or services to ensure that they received the right things. Second, the idea of co-responsibility also drew fire because it was seen as a condition. How are you going to force poor people to meet a requirement? To a certain degree, evaluation would respond to the need to generate evidence to prove whether this strategy really made sense. And what was found, to many people’s surprise, was that the poor were spending the money on food, school supplies, transportation to get to school and medicines. The second finding was that people did not view co-responsibilities as negative impositions but rather as something positive. It was quite clear in the case of health. When people start to receive preventive care, and their children do not fall ill, they are the first ones to recognize the benefits.

9. In the United States the welfare system linked to the fiscal system. There is a range of programs that kick in automatically if your income falls below certain levels, offering you a series of benefits. When your income rises, you deactivate these benefits on your own. It’s a whole system of incentives, rights and penalties that works automatically. And it’s well designed because it takes into account the short term and the long term. It’s not just social policy but also fiscal policy, because the only way you can tell how people’s situations vary is precisely because both systems are linked. In Mexico, we’re missing two pieces. The first one is that our fiscal and social systems are not connected. We also have a very large informal sector, so because our target population is not registered in the fiscal system, we can’t obtain information on how their situation varies. The second missing piece is that the social programs we have are designed to deal with structural poverty. They are static programs. The question is how, when and even whether you should take someone off a program. What we have to do is to start thinking of these programs as dynamic programs with appropriate incentives so that people themselves will leave the programs when they no longer require assistance. It’s a complex issue, but if we establish the right incentives, we can arrive at a better design, but we would still be lacking a connection to the fiscal system.

10. Jovenes con Oportunidades was started in 2003. This year’s graduates will have two years of savings. Currently there are some 40 thousand people with accounts. Eventually we’ll have 1 million.  Oportunidades had no other goal than building human capital. The new component in Oportunidades is aimed at the patrimonial aspect. It works this way: starting in the 9th grade, savings accounts are opened for students. As they meet the co-responsibility requirements, deposits are made in their name. When they graduate, they can access those savings. The interesting point is that if it were only a question of freeing up money, it would only be an incentive to finish high school. But when you obtain your diploma, you have five options: you can use the money immediately to continue studying and build up your human capital. You can use the money to exercise your income-generation capabilities, employing it as collateral for a loan to start a business or invest in a productive project. You can use the money to buy health insurance for you and your family, an option linked to social protection. The money can also be used as down payment for a housing loan, which addresses the asset accumulation aspect. Finally, if you simply want the money, you’ll have to save for a couple of years. These options are an incentive to graduate from high school and from the program. When you leave, there are other programs for you. Oportunidades is like a first rung. Many of its beneficiaries would otherwise never have a chance to accumulate assets. For the first time in their lives they’ll have an option to climb to another level. 

11. There is some evidence in Mexico’s case - that a lack of access to the financial market is one of the great obstacles to overcoming poverty. This is important for three reasons: first, because it’s necessary to generate productive options. Poor people can be very productive, but they can’t invest to expand their businesses and boost their incomes. Second, there are many people who would like to invest in their human capital but cannot do it. You could get a loan to finance your education, but if you have no access to the financial system, you won’t get one. Finally, without access to a financial market your chances of financing the purchase of durable goods are limited, therefore the chores of running a home remain less efficient. Why do we buy clothes washers? Because it’s much cheaper to use a machine than to it is to hire a person to do the wash. When a financial system allows you to buy in monthly installments, it opens up a range of options. I think that the microfinance institutions that are being opened in Mexico tend to these three aspects, among others. And these three aspects can change people’s lives for generations. On the contrary, when you don’t have these options you’re stuck in poverty. I’m convinced that creating a financial market is one of the best social development policies.

 

12. We’re in the final stage of designing a new microcredit program. The natural exit would be higher education, and there’s a quite well established scholarship program. But many young people do not want to continue studying and need another option. We’re reviewing our microcredit mechanisms so Oportunidades families may be able to access the financial system, opening up a whole range of possibilities. Its spirit is similar to Oportunidades, which marked a great change because it started to invest on the demand side. Before, when the government invested in health or education it invested on the supply side by building schools and hospitals or hiring teachers and doctors. Oportunidades invests in families so they may be able to use the services offered. We’re thinking along the same lines. Loans offered by governments are usually subsidized or given as grants, which means that they address the supply side. The idea is to address the demand side with instruments that will improve people’s credit profile so they may access the financial system. You’d help Oportunidades families acquire collateral, provide them training to run a business and link them to the financial system. At the same time we’re overhauling the whole financial system in order to favor the proliferation of microfinance institutions and credit unions under new regulations. A new supply is being created not using subsidies but with a regulatory framework that will enable them to emerge. And we’re also investing on the demand side to create more good credit histories.